.. meta:: :og:card:image: _file/pdf/gnp/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/fig/forecast-mad-nuke-winter-stochastic-inevitability-michaelis-menten-iv_llol_qqv2_2026m03d02-fig.webp ######## Science ######## This page presents evidence for the existential threats facing humanity, drawn from LLoL's research since 2020. This list is by no means complete — a sizable literature exists on existential risks. The examples here are from LLoL's own work. .. admonition:: Pick your depth :class: tip The forecast below is the 30-second picture. To go deeper: the general unpacking is in :doc:`Matheo-b16 RiskyMAD — introduction `, the rigorous treatment in :doc:`Matheo-b16 RiskyMAD — the paper `, and the original 2024 model on the :doc:`SD1 poster `. Accidental nuclear winter: an actuarial forecast ================================================= The following chart --- "Extinction by Nuclear Roulette" --- gives a rational, evidence-based forecast of the waiting time before accidental nuclear winter becomes probable on current trajectories. On Cold-War-calibrated error rates, the expected wait is only on the order of a few decades: .. image:: /_file/pdf/gnp/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/fig/forecast-mad-nuke-winter-stochastic-inevitability-michaelis-menten-iv_llol_qqv2_2026m03d02-fig.webp :alt: Extinction by Nuclear Roulette --- forecast of the waiting time until accidental nuclear winter :align: center :width: 100pc But a forecast of the danger is not a counsel of despair. The same model also shows an **escape ladder**: today's world sits in a *Risky* state that keeps sliding into *MAD* (Mutually Assured Destruction) and, by over-reach, toward *Dead* --- yet the ladder also leads up and out, through testing true Jubilees, to a *ResearchCity* that stabilises the system instead of gambling it: .. image:: /_file/pdf/gnp/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/fig/model-risky-mad-or-madi-decision-overview-iv_llol_qqv2_2026m03d01-fig-white.webp :alt: The escape ladder --- from Risky / MAD / Dead up to a ResearchCity via the Great Jubilee Race :align: center :width: 100pc The model behind this chart --- the probabilistic **RiskyMAD** estimate of the waiting time to accidental nuclear winter --- is set out in :doc:`Supporting Document SD1 ` (states, calibrated rates, sensitivity scenarios, and the simulation code) and developed in the Matheo-b16 RiskyMAD study (in active drafting, open for audit). Want the cause in one place --- the problem, a way out, and how to help? See :doc:`a top-level overview ` at the depth you have time for: 30 seconds, 5 minutes, or a 72-minute Requiem. Read this the right way round. It is tempting to hear "it's only a probability" and feel relief --- but that relief is the trap, because the truth is **worse**, not better. Picture a dice game where everyone agrees that whoever first rolls a six has lost. You can never predict *which* throw brings the six --- that part is genuinely uncertain. But *that* a six will eventually come up is as certain as the "Amen" in church. Accidental nuclear winter works the same way: on today's hair-trigger rules the model cannot say *when*, yet it says the catastrophe is a **stochastic certainty** --- statistically inescapable, with only the timing left open. So "it's not certain" is no comfort; the comfort people feel on hearing it is exactly the danger. The one real way out is to change the game itself, which is what the :doc:`Jubilee System ` is for. .. _nuclear-winter-wager: The Nuclear Winter Wager ========================= Even if you distrust the exact numbers, the *decision* is not close. You need only an honest range for how likely accidental nuclear winter is in any given year, then ask: what is the **expected value** of acting versus not acting? - **Cost of acting:** about :doc:`$8 per person per year ` to test true Jubilees and scale a ResearchCity. - **Cost of not acting:** civilization-scale loss --- at an annual risk the model puts **over 1 in 40**. No industry would accept that failure rate: if 1 in 40 flights ended in a crash, no one would fly. The expected cost of *not* participating exceeds the cost of participating by a wide margin **across the whole plausible range of the odds** --- because the evidence-based probability is far from negligible, not merely because the loss is large. We call this the **Nuclear Winter Wager**. .. admonition:: Why this is a *Pascal inversion* :class: note Pascal's famous wager bet on an *infinite, unprovable, otherworldly* payoff (eternal bliss) and asked for faith. The Nuclear Winter Wager **inverts** every term: the stakes are *finite, this-worldly, and near-term*; the probability is *evidence-based* (Cold-War near-miss data, not a leap of faith); and the entry cost is trivially small. That makes the case **stronger** than Pascal's --- and it needs no theology. You do not have to believe anything; you only have to do the arithmetic. #AuditTheMath The full audit of the :doc:`Nuclear Winter Wager ` --- all the objections I could find, each answered in an explicit HELD/BREACH ledger --- is one click deeper. The probabilistic model ======================= Humanity faces a grave choice at its Great Filter. Too many disasters to individually predict and avert are currently building momentum. .. note:: "As you believe, so it shall be" defines a work-logic cascade that either dooms the world or leads to its rescue. Revelation shows how, and LLoL found a key to decipher it. Therefore, Revelation offers a choice. You get to decide whether this choice will receive appropriate review or be buried in the sands of time. .. only:: html .. image:: /_file/pdf/gnp/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/sd1-how-to-avert-accidental-nuclear-winter-and-why-its-urgent-iv_llol_qqv4_2025m12d03-page.webp :alt: Poster with model for how to forecast waiting times until accidental nuclear winter :align: center :width: 100% :target: /_file/pdf/gnp/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/sd1-how-to-avert-accidental-nuclear-winter-and-why-its-urgent-iv_llol_qqv4_2025m12d03-page.pdf .. only:: latex .. image:: /_file/pdf/gnp/mmv3/supporting-doc/sd1/sd1-how-to-avert-accidental-nuclear-winter-and-why-its-urgent-iv_llol_qqv4_2025m12d03-page.pdf :alt: Poster with model for how to forecast waiting times until accidental nuclear winter :align: center :width: 100% The Prototype Evolvix source code shown in this figure can be run by the Prototype Evolvix Compiler archived at `Zenodo, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.19679456 `__. Both can also be obtained from the :doc:`Evolvix Compiler page `. The full model --- states, parameters, and the Evolvix simulation code --- is on the :doc:`SD1 poster ` shown above, with the underlying analysis in the Matheo-b16 RiskyMAD study. Nuclear winter is one of a long list ==================================== A common objection runs: *"nuclear war is a narrow problem --- surely it doesn't need a whole ResearchCity to fix."* But accidental nuclear winter is only **one of a long list** of existential threats that share a single root: the same short-horizon, over-reaching collective work-logic that builds the bombs also drives pandemics, ocean and freshwater collapse, runaway heating, the end of growth-by-extraction, and more. A one-off "nuclear fix" therefore does not hold --- the behaviour that builds the bombs keeps manufacturing the others --- so the durable answer is to show that people can work together as *gentle kind reasonable* humans across the whole list, which is the task of the :doc:`ResearchCity `. The full seven (LLoL's "7DUI"), and the striking way the same list appears in first-century language in Revelation 16, are laid out in :doc:`7DUI --- A Science–Faith Bridge `. .. ----- FOOTER FORM OOv1r2p1 ----- type open-std ----- START ----- .. |content-vvn| replace:: dv_ClaOp48Max_MMv1_2026m06d03 .. include:: /_templates/include-file/footer/separator/tidal-gradient.rst .. dropdown:: Notes :class-container: page-footer-form-notes :class-title: page-footer-form-title .. include:: /_templates/include-file/footer/page-footer-stability.rst .. dropdown:: See also on Balospe.com :open: :class-container: page-footer-form-refs-internal :class-title: page-footer-form-title - :doc:`The 7DUIs ` and :doc:`the 7DUI bridge ` - :doc:`/crisis/prophecy` and :doc:`/crisis/index` - :doc:`The Jubilee System ` - :doc:`Buy in to fund the review ` .. only:: html .. include:: /_templates/include-file/footer/cta/researchcity.rst .. dropdown:: FF FeedbackFlow to improve this page: How you can contribute :class-container: page-footer-form-feedbackflow :class-title: page-footer-form-title .. include:: /_templates/include-file/footer/form-open-std/prelink.rst .. ----- PAGE-SPECIFIC FF (ff-email MailForm=OOv2r0p0) ----- START ----- .. raw:: html To: FF+crisis-science@balospe.com CC: FF+CompleteFeedbackFlow@balospe.com Subject: FF k2 s2 AIMS for [crisis-science] Replace_by_OneLineSummary Body: To make this page [crisis-science] more gentle kind reasonable for beginners, producers, andOr experts with a background in xyz: Please consider improving this: -- By sending this email, I agree that its content may be published under the Jonah License (balospe.com/en/license/joli/) unless I state otherwise above. 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